Another factor to keep in mind as we come down the stretch of the NFL season
is weather. And the Patriots miss Crennel. The NY Jets have an incredibly anemic offense
rotating four QBs this season. After starting the season 5-0 under the total, the Colts
offense has begun to click, while the defense has begun to bend more and Indy
is 5-0 over the total the last five contests. Did you see the Rams flop
at home Sunday in a 38-28 loss to the Cardinals? The game sailed over the
total, which is not a surprise as the Rams have the fourth-worst defense in the
NFL. Along with his absence and numerous injuries to the secondary, the Patriots are 6-3
over the total, with a fine passing attack but a suddenly poor secondary.Injuries, too, can
change a team significantly. The Bears are 8-2 Tn Requin under the total this season. Cold weather
is tougher on offenses, as is chilling winds and snow which is also something that
will become more common.The Colts improved defense was one of the big surprises of the
NFL season. It's those type of team strengths and weaknesses (bad defense, good offense) that
handicappers look for when examining totals. The Bengals/Colts shootout Sunday went over the total in
the first half!You might classify the Cleveland Browns in the Chicago Bears category, too: Plodding
offense, tough defense. It's essential to check weather conditions on game day. The Rams are
4-1 over the total at home, too, on their slick artificial carpet.Speaking of Lovie Smith,
he's since gone on to be head coach of the Chicago Bears. The Browns are
improved defensively under his guidance, going 8-2 under the total. Think that's just a trend?
Smith Nike Requin ran the same formula a year ago as Chicago went 10-6 under the total,
meaning they are 18-8 under since he's become Bears coach!Handicapping totals is about line value,
but it's also about the styles a football team plays. It's obvious Marmie does not
possess Smith's talent for defense. Stats, styles, coaching and weather all contribute to overs and
unders.Bryan Leonard is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. But notice they haven't
been as strong of late, giving up over 20 points in 4 of the last
5 games. The Jets are 4-2 under the total on the road where the offense
is averaging just 7 points per game! The Steelers can't wait for Ben Roethlisberger to
get healthy, and notice Pittsburgh is 5-0 under the total on the road with a
tough defense and a conservative offense without Big Ben. He has an abundance of defensive
talent, and limited offensive options along with a rookie quarterback. The Rams have a high
octane offense with loads of weapons in the running and passing game, but the defense
has been poor the last two years under coordinator Larry Marmie, who replaced the popular
Lovie Smith. Head coach Romeo Crennel has a great defensive mind, winning three of the
last four Super Bowls as coordinator of the Patriots defense. It's no surprise that Smith
prefers to win games with his defense and play conservative offensively with a rookie QB.
70% of the Rams games have gone over the total this season (7-3). The Bengals
got them for close to 500 yards Sunday. Northern cities like Chicago, New York, Boston,
Philly and Pittsburgh are getting cold this time of year. Read all of his
articles at [http://www.procappers.com/Bryan_Leonard.htm].
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